Adam Frank is an exceptional science communicator. In a conversation with Joe Rogan (episode #1130) and in other platforms he uses the analogy that scientific studies are like spitballs. At first it didn’t make any sense but as he explained it not only did his metaphor become clear, I had to pause the episode to really think through the impact that this idea would have in changing my entire world view.
Many of us can relate to this experience at one time or another (or every day!). We hear something interesting and it rocks our world view, we immediately need to share it! Why can’t everyone else see it? Why doesn’t the established community change their stance?! There must be a conspiracy! There is some truth to the idea that people and communities in general get entrenched in their ideas. Many times it is because they are comfortable or for many people in a field they have seen so many theories come and go, that they default to dismissal. This last point is the key here, there is momentum at play. So many ideas have come and go, time is the test. Repeatability is the key and this cannot be overstated. One test with surprising results may pique some interest among the fringe, the media, and maybe even some people trying to make a name for themselves within the community. If the experiment can be repeated, if enough evidence can be compiled, bit by painstaking bit you might find some acceptance.
I see this in health news all the time, when there seems to be a new story every week of an every day item increasing cancer risk or a new way to optimize your health or weight loss. We see it in reports that coffee might be bad for you, or it might not. Vitamins might be useless, or maybe they aren’t. And we see it in our dialogue about climate change, reports of cooling in the 70’s and warming now. Look at the methods in the studies. Look for other studies that tried to find the same thing.
Frank compares this work to shooting a spitball onto the side of a ship. One spitball means nothing. It isn’t noticeable. But get enough spitballs stuck to the same side of the same ship and eventually it can make a difference. Always look for more evidence, not just the outlier.
