conspiracies, finance, lookintoit, media, Politics, science, Uncategorized

The Anti-Mask League of 1918

For some reason the unroll bot Thread Reader is not working on twitter, so I compiled this thread to make it easier for people to read/share. Here is the original thread:

https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073


So, starting in Sept 2018 San Francisco suffered from Spanish Flu pandemic. Initial mask wearing was good — around 80 percent. By November cases were down, and public health officials recommended re-opening the city. Residents rushed to entertainment venues after having been denied this communal joy for months. The Mayor himself was fined by his own police chief after going to a show without a mask. But a second wave surged in Dec 1918, and SF’s Health Officer again urged people to wear masks voluntarily

Left to their own devices, most citizens – by one count 90 % – refused to wear masks. Businesses, concerned about Christmas sales, opposed. So did Culinary Workers union. San Francisco residents were fed up. This was the second wave of the pandemic, and they had already spent months between Sept and Nov being hassled, fined and even arrested for not having a mask on. Challenges of constitutionality were heard. Christian Scientists objected, arguing that it was “subversive of personal liberty and constitutional rights.” Civil libertarians argued that if health officials could force them to wear masks, then it could force them to inoculate “or any experiment or indignity.” The San Francisco Chronicle turned against the notion of mandatory masks.

Was the death rate high enough to justify remasking?

Wasn’t this just the return of normal seasonal colds?

How much was this due to a public ‘scare’ and hype?

An op-ed ran in the local paper w/headline ‘What’s The Use?’ after a man got sick despite following public health guidelines. A promised vaccine turned out to be bogus 100s of citizens congregated on Dec 16 to debate a masking order. On Dec. 18 someone had sent what appeared to be an improvised explosive device to San Francisco’s public health official signed, ‘Compliments from John.’ (!!!)

The story via historian Alfred W. Crosby:

San Francisco’s Public Health Officer stuck by his guns, refusing to back down, and saying there was evidence that masks helped!

He implored the public to look to the data! Wear masks! They help!

But the public declined to listen to SF’s Public Health Officer. On Dec 19, officials voted down a mandatory mask order. “The dollar sign is exalted above the health sign,” sighed the public health officer. By far the worst day of flu/pneumonia deaths followed on Dec 30. Flu got worse in San Francisco when masking was voluntary.

A representative of organized labor relented: “It is of no time to quibble over the worth of the mask. It is the best thing we have found to date, and if you have anything better, for God’s sake, give it to us.” So on Jan 10, 1919 local officials voted to approve a new mandatory mask order after 600 new cases were reported that day. Citizens were arrested/fined for not having masks on, but widespread disobedience of the order continue & large numbers of citizens refused to wear masks.

Protests continued:

Over 2,000 people attended an event formed by San Franciscans called themselves ‘THE ANTI-MASK LEAGUE,’ denouncing the mandatory masking ordinance. The gathering was of “public spirited citizens, skeptical physicians and fanatics,” writes historian Crosby. Moderates in the Anti-Mask League wanted to circulate an anti-mask petition. Extremists wanted to initiate recall proceedings of SF’s Public Health Officer. Chaos broke out until someone shouted, “I rented this hall and now I’m going to turn out the lights.” (Mak note: lol)

The San Francisco Public Health Officer was a man named Dr. William C. Hassler. Think of him as the 1919 Dr. Fauci. Ignored by those who didn’t want to believe the data, threatened with violence, Hassler was conscientious and performed his job with distinction.

I haven’t read anything about how many people became sick DUE to the Anti-Mask League event, where 1000s gathered to protest without masks. So we may not know how many people, if any, became sick due to this congregation but safe to say it was not helpful during pandemic. On Jan 17, the day the masking ordinance went into effect, the # of new cases/deaths declined, the first decline in quite some time. This continued until the epidemic faded, a signal that the mask ordinance had helped wipe out the Spanish Flu in San Francisco. Of course, the SF Public Health Officer — the 1919 version of Dr. Fauci, got no credit for the decline in influenza cases. People continued to gripe about the masking even after the pandemic had been stalled by it. No one seemed to credit masking for the success of blunting the Spanish Flu in San Francisco — because, well, the crisis faded due to its success. “Rarely has the evidence in support of a scientific hypothesis been more overwhelming and more deceiving,” writes historian Crosby.

Ultimately San Francisco was one of the American cities hardest hit by the Spanish Flu. 673 per 100,000 people died during the pandemic due to influenza and pneumonia, per U of Michigan. 50K cases total and 3,500 were killed, per Crosby.

PHOTO: Masks being worn by players during a baseball game, in newspaper Mar 1, 1919 via The Independent

The 1918/1919 protests against mask wearing and other public health measures have parallels to today. We learn through this episode that various groups of Americans have been pushing back against public health measures for more than a hundred years — and for similar reasons!! In learning about the Anti-Mask League of 1919, we see many of the same human elements as today: a portion of the population resistant to the measures; a business community crying out for relief; a second wave after an initial loosening; threats to public health officials. This is essentially a report that I pieced together by reading sources after getting curious about the 1919 Anti-Mask League. Any mistakes are my own.

I started by drafting a few tweets and then spent an hour and a half researching it last night. One thing led to another…

SOURCES:

The University of Michigan’s Influenza Encyclopedia
The San Francisco Chronicle’s archives
America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918 by Alfred W. Crosby
American Pandemic by Nancy Bristow

/END THREAD

media, Politics, science

The Answer Can Be BOTH: Life, the Coronavirus / Covid-19, and Everything.

Why must we always jump to an extreme position? And why do we then assume that anyone who disagrees is the other extreme?

Little by little the news of Covid-19 hits closer and closer to home. First it was spreading quickly but not here. Then there were rumors, then reports of infections, and now infections and one fatality. The news does what the news always does- it creates headlines that we can’t look away from. Sometimes it’s overwhelming, but it is our job to strip away the sensationalism and find the real, factual report. In doing so it seems like everywhere we look we see either a looming apocalypse or “nothing to see here.” People are either waiting in lines at warehouse stores for all their last minute prepping needs or they are rolling their eyes. And this is to say nothing of the conspiracy theories that spin off.

People are free to respond however they want, but if it’s not posted on social media, does it really happen? Everyone feels the need to offer advice to each other, to tell people how they are supposed to feel, to free as many people as possible from the fake news that they’ve fallen for. So the preppers prep and continue to report the ever tightening reports of infections and fatalities. And the “nothing to see here’s” make sure to tell everyone that they are over reacting and that the flu is much worse insert up to date flu fatalities vs Covid-19 fatalities information here.

But isn’t the flu only much worse because it’s much more widespread? According to reports as of the date of this publishing, the mortality rate is much higher for Covid-19 than it is for the influenza. If Covid-19 becomes as widespread as the flu, it would mean many more global deaths, therein lies the concern.

Why have we lost the ability to have measured, nuanced conversations? It seems reasonable to warn people about the risks of this new and spreading virus, to warn people about why the higher mortality rate is so concerning, but at the same time not trigger a mass panic due to exaggerated discourse.

And why do I feel like this is my response to pretty much every single news story? Both can be true, if they would just dial down the rhetoric a little bit.

But what a post be without some unsolicited advice? It’s a lot more fun to follow the news and replace “Covid-19” with “zombie virus” and imagine yourself as the main character in a Walking Dead spin off, sitting in the US watching the reports get closer and closer.

Climate Change, conspiracies, science, studies

Scientific Studies are Spitballs

Adam Frank is an exceptional science communicator. In a conversation with Joe Rogan (episode #1130) and in other platforms he uses the analogy that scientific studies are like spitballs. At first it didn’t make any sense but as he explained it not only did his metaphor become clear, I had to pause the episode to really think through the impact that this idea would have in changing my entire world view.

Many of us can relate to this experience at one time or another (or every day!). We hear something interesting and it rocks our world view, we immediately need to share it! Why can’t everyone else see it? Why doesn’t the established community change their stance?! There must be a conspiracy! There is some truth to the idea that people and communities in general get entrenched in their ideas. Many times it is because they are comfortable or for many people in a field they have seen so many theories come and go, that they default to dismissal. This last point is the key here, there is momentum at play. So many ideas have come and go, time is the test. Repeatability is the key and this cannot be overstated. One test with surprising results may pique some interest among the fringe, the media, and maybe even some people trying to make a name for themselves within the community. If the experiment can be repeated, if enough evidence can be compiled, bit by painstaking bit you might find some acceptance.

I see this in health news all the time, when there seems to be a new story every week of an every day item increasing cancer risk or a new way to optimize your health or weight loss. We see it in reports that coffee might be bad for you, or it might not. Vitamins might be useless, or maybe they aren’t. And we see it in our dialogue about climate change, reports of cooling in the 70’s and warming now. Look at the methods in the studies. Look for other studies that tried to find the same thing.

Frank compares this work to shooting a spitball onto the side of a ship. One spitball means nothing. It isn’t noticeable. But get enough spitballs stuck to the same side of the same ship and eventually it can make a difference. Always look for more evidence, not just the outlier.